2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona|
|
|
| Turnout | 55.65% |
|---|
|
|
Majority party
|
Minority party
|
|
|
|
|
| Party
|
Republican
|
Democratic
|
| Last election
|
3
|
5
|
| Seats won
|
5
|
3
|
| Seat change
|
2
|
2
|
| Popular vote
|
900,510
|
711,837
|
| Percentage
|
53.03%
|
41.92%
|
| Swing
|
9.00%
|
3.55%
|
|
District results
County results
|
Republican
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
|
Democratic
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
| |
The 2010 congressional elections in Arizona were held on November 2, 2010, to determine who would represent the state of Arizona in the United States House of Representatives. Arizona had eight seats in the House, apportioned according to the 2000 United States census. Representatives were elected for two-year terms; those elected were to serve in the 112th Congress from January 3, 2011, until January 3, 2013.
The state's 2009-2010 delegation consisted of five Democrats and three Republicans. With the exception of Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick, who had won the open seat in District 1 during the previous election, all members of the delegation were incumbents who had served for at least a full term in Congress. Also, with the exception of retiring Republican John Shadegg of District 3, all incumbent members of the state's delegation ran for re-election.
As of August 17, 2010, Districts 1, 5 and 8, all held by Democrats, were considered to be competitive by both CQ Politics and The Cook Political Report.[1][2] The primary elections for Congressional races were held on August 24, 2010.[3][4]
Overview
The table below shows the total number and percentage of votes, as well as the number of seats gained and lost by each political party in the election for the United States House of Representatives in Arizona. In addition, the voter turnout and the number of votes not valid will be listed below.[5]
Statewide
| Party
|
Candidates
|
Votes
|
Seats
|
| No.
|
%
|
No.
|
+/–
|
%
|
|
|
Republican
|
8
|
900,510
|
53.03
|
5
|
2
|
62.50
|
|
|
Democratic
|
8
|
711,837
|
41.92
|
3
|
2
|
37.50
|
|
|
Libertarian
|
8
|
72,216
|
4.25
|
0
|
|
0.0
|
|
|
Green
|
3
|
9,066
|
0.53
|
0
|
|
0.0
|
|
|
Independent
|
1
|
4,506
|
0.27
|
0
|
|
0.0
|
| Total
|
28
|
1,698,135
|
100.0
|
8
|
|
100.0
|
| Popular vote |
|---|
|
|
|
| Republican |
|
53.03% |
| Democratic |
|
41.92% |
| Libertarian |
|
4.25% |
| Green |
|
0.53% |
| Other |
|
0.27% |
|
| House seats |
|---|
|
|
|
| Republican |
|
62.50% |
| Democratic |
|
37.50% |
|
By district
Results of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona by district:[6]
District 1
2010 Arizona's 1st congressional district election|
|
|
|
County results
Kirkpatrick: 50–60% 60–70%
Gosar: 40–50% 50–60% |
|
Incumbent Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick, who had represented the district since 2009, ran for re-election. She was elected with 55.9% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+6.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
Results
Republican primary
The Republican primary featured 8 candidates seeking to take on Kirkpatrick in the general election. Mining industry lobbyist Sydney Hay, who had been the Republican nominee to run against Kirkpatrick in 2008, finished second in the primary behind dentist Paul Gosar. Other unsuccessful Republican candidates included attorney Bradley Beauchamp and former state legislator Russell Bowers.
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Bradley Beauchamp, attorney
- Russell Bowers, former state senator
- Sydney Hay, mining industry lobbyist, nominee for this seat in 2008 and candidate in 2002
- Joe Jaraczewski, former real estate development company owner[8]
- Jon Jensen, former Greeley County School Superintendent[9]
- Steve Mehta, cardiologist
- Thomas J. Zaleski, President at Thoma Capital Management LLC
Withdrawn
Endorsements
Paul Gosar
Statewide officials
Local officials
Results
Gosar, a political neophyte, buoyed by endorsements from highly visible Republican politicians, including Sarah Palin, won the primary with just under 31% of the vote.[11]
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
Results
General election
Prior to Kirkpatrick's election in 2008, the 1st district had been held by Republicans since this version of the seat was created following the 2000 census.
Polling
| Poll source
|
Date(s)
administered
|
Sample
size
|
Margin of
error
|
Ann
Kirkpatrick (D)
|
Paul
Gosar (R)
|
Nicole
Patti (L)
|
Undecided
|
| Lake Research Partners (D)[12]
|
October 12–14, 2010
|
500 (LV)
|
±4.4%
|
41%
|
38%
|
6%
|
15%
|
| The Hill/ANGA[13]
|
September 25–30, 2010
|
403 (LV)
|
±4.9%
|
39%
|
46%
|
3%
|
12%
|
| Moore Information (R)[14]
|
August 30–31, 2010
|
412 (LV)
|
±4.8%
|
43%
|
43%
|
–
|
14%
|
| American Action Forum[15]
|
August 25–29, 2010
|
400 (LV)
|
±4.9%
|
41%
|
47%
|
–
|
12%
|
| Lake Research Partners (D)[16]
|
August 24–26, 2010
|
500 (LV)
|
±4.4%
|
43%
|
39%
|
–
|
17%
|
Predictions
Results
Kirkpatrick lost on November 2, 2010, to Paul Gosar and the seat reverted to the Republicans.
District 2
2010 Arizona's 2nd congressional district election|
|
|
|
|
Incumbent Republican Trent Franks, who had represented the district since 2003, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 59.4% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+13.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Results
Franks won an easy victory with over 80% of the vote in his favour.[23]
Democratic primary
Retired teacher John Thrasher ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Thrasher has twice attempted to unseat Franks, losing to the incumbent by 19% in 2006 and by 22% in 2008.(campaign site, PVS)
Candidates
Nominee
- John Thrasher, retired teacher and nominee for this seat in 2006 and 2008
Results
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
Results
General election
Results
District 3
2010 Arizona's 3rd congressional district election|
|
|
|
|
Incumbent Republican John Shadegg, who had represented the district since 1995, retired. He was re-elected with 54.1% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+9.
Republican primary
On January 14, 2010, 8-term incumbent Shadegg announced his retirement at the end of his current term, making the third district an open seat.[24] In the wake of Shadegg's retirement, several Republicans declared their candidacy.[25]
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined
Campaign
Gorman gained national attention during the campaign for an ad showing her firing a Thompson submachine gun,[33] and for her cosponsorship of the highly controversial SB 1070 anti-illegal immigration bill.[34]
Quayle, the initial frontrunner in the race, faced criticism for his prior involvement with the controversial rumour and gossip website "DirtyScottsdale.com". According to the site's founder, Quayle was one of the "original contributors" to the site, which covered Scottsdale nightlife with features including sexy photos of women, and was the predecessor to the gossip website TheDirty.com.[35] Quayle initially denied the rumors,[36] before admitting several weeks later that he did, in fact, write material for the site under the pen name Brock Landers.[35][37][38][39] Newcomer Steve Moak's strong fundraising[40] and television advertising blitz against Quayle saw him to be viewed as the new frontrunner, however he faced allegations that he illegally profited from a charity he had set up, hurt his campaign.[41][42]
Results
Quayle emerged victorious with 22.1% of the vote, while businessman and political neophyte Steve Moak came in second with 18%.[23]
Democratic primary
Jon Hulburd filed his candidacy for the Democratic nomination on October 16, 2009.[43] The Hulburd campaign got off to a strong start and raised over $300,000 in the fourth quarter of 2009.[44] This attracted national attention with the DCCC naming the race as one of its top 17 races to watch nationwide.[45]
Candidates
Nominee
- Jon Hulburd, attorney and small businessman
Results
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
Results
Green primary
Candidates
Nominee
Results
General election
Polling
| Poll source
|
Date(s)
administered
|
Sample
size
|
Margin of
error
|
Ben
Quayle (R)
|
Jon
Hulburd (D)
|
Undecided
|
| Public Policy Polling[49]
|
October 16–17, 2010
|
655 (LV)
|
±3.8%
|
44%
|
46%
|
10%
|
Predictions
Results
District 4
2012 Arizona's 4th congressional district election|
|
|
|
|
Incumbent Democrat Ed Pastor, who had represented the district since 1991, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 72.1% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of D+13. Since taking office, he has been re-elected nine times with no less than 62% of the vote.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
Results
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Joe Peñalosa, immigration attorney[23]
Results
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
Results
Green primary
Candidates
Nominee
Results
General election
Results
District 5
2010 Arizona's 5th congressional district election|
|
|
|
Precinct results
Schweikert: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%
Mitchell: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
Tie No votes |
|
Incumbent Democrat Harry Mitchell, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 53.2% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+5.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
Results
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Susan Bitter Smith, former Scottsdale city council member, candidate for the 1st District in 1994 and 2000 and for this seat in 2008.
- Lee Gentry, business owner, attorney, certified public accountant and candidate for this seat in 2008
- Chris Salvino, surgeon
- Mark Spinks, realtor[50]
- Jim Ward, venture capitalist
Withdrawn
- Eric Wnuck, businessman[51]
Results
Schweikert's victory sets up a rematch against Mitchell, who defeated him 53-44% in the 2008 general election.[52]
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
Results
Green primary
Candidates
Nominee
Results
Blackman withdrew from the general election.[53]
General election
Campaign
Prior to Mitchell's victory over incumbent conservative Republican J. D. Hayworth in 2006, the district had been held by Republicans since 1995, although it had been tending towards the Democrats. Schweikert posted signs across the district calling Mitchell a “lap dog” for Nancy Pelosi, after Mitchell voted for the 2008 bank bailout, the $787 billion stimulus law in 2009 and the Affordable Care Act in March 2010. This despite Mitchell's breaks with the Party on a number of Tax and climate change legislation.[54]
Endorsements
Debates
Polling
| Poll source
|
Date(s)
administered
|
Sample
size
|
Margin of
error
|
Harry
Mitchell (D)
|
David
Schweikert (R)
|
Nick
Coons (L)
|
Undecided
|
| Penn Schoen Berland (D)/The Hill/ANGA)[55]
|
October 12–14, 2010
|
408 (LV)
|
±4.9%
|
42%
|
45%
|
1%
|
12%
|
| Benenson Strategy Group (D)[56]
|
October 5–7, 2010
|
400 (LV)
|
±4.9%
|
46%
|
39%
|
—
|
15%
|
| National Research (R)[57]
|
October 5–6, 2010
|
400 (LV)
|
±4.9%
|
43%
|
45%
|
—
|
12%
|
| Bennett, Petts & Normington (D)[58]
|
September 26–27, 2010
|
400 (LV)
|
±4.9%
|
43%
|
40%
|
6%
|
11%
|
| Harstad Strategic Research (D)[59]
|
September 13–16, 2010
|
509 (LV)
|
±4.3%
|
45%
|
44%
|
6%
|
5%
|
| National Research (R)[60]
|
August 31-September 2, 2010
|
400 (LV)
|
±4.9%
|
38%
|
46%
|
—
|
16%
|
| American Action Forum[61]
|
August 25–29, 2010
|
400 (LV)
|
±4.9%
|
44%
|
50%
|
—
|
6%
|
Predictions
Results
David Schweikert defeated Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell on November 2, 2010, returning the seat to the Republicans.
District 6
2010 Arizona's 6th congressional district election|
|
|
|
|
Incumbent Republican Jeff Flake, who had represented the district since 2001, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 62.4% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+15.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Results
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
Withdrawn
Results
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
Results
Green primary
Candidates
Nominee
Results
General election
Results
District 7
2010 Arizona's 7th congressional district election|
|
|
|
|
Incumbent Democrat Raúl Grijalva, who had represented the district since 2003, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 63.3% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of D+6.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
Results
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Christopher J. Flowers
- Terry Myers
- Joseph Sweeney, educator, nominee for this seat in 2004 & 2008 and candidate in 2000, 2002 & 2006
- Robert Wilson
Results
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Results
Independents
Candidates
Nominee
General election
Campaign
Despite the Democratic lean of the district, Grijalva faced a tougher than expected re-election campaign following his suggestion that businesses should boycott the state in response to the passing of the highly controversial SB 1070 anti-illegal immigration bill. Both Grijalva and challenger, 28-year-old physicist Ruth McClung, benefitted from outside spending in the final weeks of the campaign, in addition to the national environment favouring the Republicans.[62][63]
Polling
| Poll source
|
Date(s)
administered
|
Sample
size
|
Margin of
error
|
Raúl
Grijalva (D)
|
Ruth
McClung (R)
|
George
Keane (L)
|
Harley
Meyer (I)
|
Undecided
|
| Summit Consulting Group[64]
|
October 4–5, 2010
|
1,807 (LV)
|
±3.0%
|
37%
|
39%
|
—
|
—
|
24%
|
| Magellan Strategies (R)[65]
|
September 29, 2010
|
686 (LV)
|
±3.7%
|
40%
|
38%
|
4%
|
5%
|
13%
|
| American Political Consultants (R)[66]
|
September 25–26, 2010
|
450 (LV)
|
±4.3%
|
42%
|
35%
|
—
|
—
|
23%
|
Predictions
Results
Two days after the election Grijalva was declared the winner, with his margin of victory being ultimately 6 points.[67]
District 8
2010 Arizona's 8th congressional district election|
|
|
|
|
Incumbent Democrat Gabby Giffords, who had represented the district since 2007, ran for re-election. She was re-elected with 54.7% of the vote in 2008 and the district had a PVI of R+4.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
Results
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Jesse Kelly, Marine veteran and businessman (no relation to Giffords' husband Mark Kelly)
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn
Debates
Results
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Nominee
Results
General election
Prior to Giffords win in 2006, the seat had been held by Republicans since 1985 under moderate Jim Kolbe.
Polling
| Poll source
|
Date(s)
administered
|
Sample
size
|
Margin of
error
|
Gabrielle
Giffords (D)
|
Jesse
Kelly (R)
|
Undecided
|
| American Action Forum[73]
|
August 25–29, 2010
|
400 (LV)
|
±4.9%
|
46%
|
46%
|
8%
|
Predictions
Results
References
- ^ "Race Ratings Chart: House". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved August 26, 2010.
- ^ "2010 COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACE CHART". The Cook Political Report. August 17, 2010. Archived from the original on August 20, 2010. Retrieved August 26, 2010.
- ^ "2010 Primary Election". Arizona Secretary of State. Archived from the original on September 20, 2010. Retrieved August 26, 2010.
- ^ John McArdle; Tricia Miller; Steve Peoples; Kyle Trygstad (October 1, 2010). "Southwest: GOP Looks to Pick Up 3 House Seats in Arizona". Roll Call. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
- ^ "State of Arizona Official Canvass - 2010" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 20, 2013.
- ^ Haas, Karen L. (June 3, 2011). "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010". Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. Retrieved November 12, 2019.
- ^ a b c d e f "STATE OF ARIZONA OFFICIAL CANVASS - 2010 Primary Election" (PDF). azsos.gov. Arizona Secretary of State. September 7, 2010. Retrieved October 4, 2023.
- ^ Jonathan Allen (August 23, 2010). "Frosh at immigration 'ground zero'". Politico. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
- ^ C. Bentley Hill (August 19, 2010). "Jon Jensen – Candidate U.S. Congress – Arizona CD1 – Republican". sedonaeye.com. Sedona Eye. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
- ^ a b c "2010 Primary Election Withdrawn or Removed Candidates". azsos.gov. Arizona Secretary of State. August 4, 2010. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
- ^ LaMaster, Lynne (August 26, 2010). "Paul Gosar Finds Easy Victory in CD1 Primary". Prescott News. Retrieved August 26, 2010.
- ^ Lake Research Partners (D)
- ^ The Hill/ANGA
- ^ Moore Information (R)
- ^ American Action Forum
- ^ Lake Research Partners (D)
- ^ a b c d e "The Cook Political Report – Charts – 2010 House Competitive Races". The Cook Political Report. November 1, 2010. Archived from the original on November 4, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
- ^ a b c d e Rothenberg Political Report (November 1, 2010). "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 1, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
- ^ a b c d e Crystal Ball, as of November 1, 2010
- ^ a b c d e RealClearPolitics, as of November 1, 2010
- ^ a b c d e "2010 House Ratings Chart". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j "House Race Ratings". nytimes.com. The New York Times. Archived from the original on November 7, 2010. Retrieved October 9, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e "August 24, 2010 Primary Election". Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved August 26, 2010.
- ^ Nowicki, Dan (January 15, 2010). "Arizona Rep. John Shadegg wonít seek re-election". The Arizona Republic.
- ^ "Shadegg move sets off a political tidal-wave". The Arizona Republic. January 20, 2010.
- ^ Kraushaar, Josh (February 12, 2010). "Quayle's son running for Shadegg seat". Politico.
- ^ "Ben Quayle, son of ex-veep, running for Shadegg's seat". The Arizona Republic. February 16, 2010. Retrieved March 9, 2015.
- ^ "Supervisors select new legislator". February 18, 2010. Archived from the original on June 7, 2022. Retrieved March 19, 2019.
- ^ a b c d e Emily Cadei (January 14, 2010). "Candidates Begin to Line Up for Shadegg's Seat". Roll Call. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
- ^ "Paulina Vazquez Morris for US Congress". Latino Perspectives Magazine. February 2010.
- ^ "Waring resigns to run for Congress". Azcentral.com. January 29, 2010. Retrieved February 24, 2010.
- ^ Balazs, Diana (January 29, 2010). "Another Paradise Valley mayor eyes John Shadegg's seat in Congress". The Arizona Republic.
- ^ David Sessions. "Pamela Gorman, Arizona GOP Candidate, Fires Machine Gun in Video". Politics Daily. Retrieved August 25, 2010.
- ^ Stephanie Condon (August 25, 2010). "Arizona Primary Results: Ben Quayle Wins". Political Hotsheet. CBS News.
- ^ a b "44 – Ben Quayle admits writing for 'Dirty Scottsdale' Web site". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on May 13, 2011. Retrieved March 9, 2015.
- ^ "Ben Quayle denies link to Dirty Scottsdale website – Kasie Hunt and Scott Wong". Politico. August 10, 2010. Retrieved March 9, 2015.
- ^ "Racy website link hurting Ben Quayle". KTAR. August 16, 2010. Retrieved September 8, 2010.
- ^ "Quayle still on the attack in Arizona". CNN. Archived from the original on July 14, 2012.
- ^ "Ben Quayle changes story on website – Scott Wong". Politico. August 11, 2010. Archived from the original on November 6, 2010. Retrieved October 19, 2010.
- ^ "Moak's campaign cash nearing $1M". azcapitoltimes.com. Arizona Capitol Times. July 12, 2010. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
- ^ Evan Wyloge (August 19, 2010). "Quayle claims Moak made millions off charity; Moak says not so". azcapitoltimes.com. Arizona Capitol Times. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
- ^ "Quayle bounces back, emerges victorious in CD3". azcapitoltimes.com. Arizona Capitol Times. August 24, 2010. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
- ^ "Federal Election Commission Report". Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved January 27, 2010.
- ^ Aaron Blake (January 14, 2010). "Dem running for Shadegg seat is well-funded". thehill.com. The Hill. Archived from the original on January 16, 2010. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
- ^ Kraushaar, Josh (January 14, 2010). "DCCC telegraphs its top GOP targets". Politico.
- ^ Official candidate list Archived 2010-09-20 at the Wayback Machine Arizona Secretary of State
- ^ a b "Full Listing". Azsos.gov. Archived from the original on September 20, 2010. Retrieved September 4, 2010.
- ^ "Press Release: Arizona Green Party (AZGP) endorses seven candidates at state meeting | Arizona Green Party". AZGP. Archived from the original on July 25, 2011. Retrieved September 4, 2010.
- ^ Public Policy Polling
- ^ Michael Ferraresi (June 25, 2010). "'Flawed' hopeful seeks Congress seat". azcentral.com. The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on November 17, 2018. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
- ^ Emily Cadel (February 22, 2010). "Arizona: Bitter Smith Tries Again for Mitchell's Seat". rollcall.com. Roll Call. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
- ^ "Campaign". The Hill. November 17, 2009. Archived from the original on February 8, 2009. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- ^ Official candidate listing] Arizona Secretary of State
- ^ Jonathan Allen (September 3, 2010). "Ariz. race hinges on national party". politico.com. Politico. Retrieved October 9, 2023.
- ^ Penn Schoen Berland (D/The Hill/ANGA)
- ^ Benenson Strategy Group (D)
- ^ National Research (R)
- ^ Bennett, Petts & Normington (D)
- ^ Harstad Strategic Research (D)
- ^ National Research (R)
- ^ American Action Forum
- ^ Jonathan Allen (October 21, 2010). "Grijalva's plight draws outside cash". Politico. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
- ^ Kyle Trygstad (October 17, 2010). "DCCC Invests in Two Newly Vulnerable House Races". Roll Call. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
- ^ Summit Consulting Group
- ^ Magellan Strategies (R)
- ^ American Political Consultants (R)
- ^ Roll Call Staff (November 4, 2010). "AP Declares Grijalva Winner". Roll Call. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
- ^ Tricia Miller (July 14, 2010). "Arizona: Giffords Began July With $2.2 Million in Bank". rollcall.com/. Roll Call. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
- ^ Kyle Trygstad (October 6, 2010). "Giffords, Kelly Post Strong Fundraising Totals in Arizona". rollcall.com. Roll Call. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
- ^ Roll Call Staff (January 17, 2010). "GOP Recruit Will Take on Giffords in Arizona". rollcall.com/. Roll Call. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
- ^ Daniel Newhauser (April 14, 2010). "Top Recruit Gives GOP Hope of Beating Giffords". rollcall.com. Roll Call. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
- ^ Kyle Trygstad (August 15, 2010). "Arizona House Race Gets a Little Nasty'". rollcall.com. Roll Call. Retrieved November 23, 2023.
- ^ American Action Forum
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