2025 Canadian federal election in Manitoba
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All 14 Manitoban seats in the House of Commons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Registered | 950,577 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 639,282 (67.25%)[1] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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In the 2025 Canadian federal election, 14 members of Parliament were elected to the House of Commons from the province of Manitoba (4.1% of all members).
2022 electoral redistribution
The 2025 Canadian federal election was the first election to utilize the electoral districts established following the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution. The House of Commons increased from 338 seats to 343 seats. Manitoba's seat allocation stayed the same at 14 seats. This ensures that the average population per constituency in Manitoba is 95,868 (according to the 2021 Canadian census), which is 11,980 less people per electoral district than the national average.[2]
Timeline
| Seat | Before | Change | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Member | Party | Reason | Date | Member | Party | |
| Winnipeg South Centre | December 12, 2022 | Jim Carr | █ Liberal | Died in office | June 19, 2023 | Ben Carr | █ Liberal |
| Portage—Lisgar | February 28, 2023 | Candice Bergen | █ Conservative | Resigned | June 19, 2023 | Branden Leslie | █ Conservative |
| Elmwood—Transcona | March 31, 2024 | Daniel Blaikie | █ New Democratic | Resigned to work with Premier of Manitoba Wab Kinew | September 16, 2024 | Leila Dance | █ New Democratic |
Predictions
| Polling firm | Last date of polling |
Link | LPC | CPC | NDP | GPC | PPC | Others | Margin of error[a] |
Sample size[b] |
Polling method[c] | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probe Research | April 14, 2025 | [3] | 43 | 40 | 15 | 1 | 1 | — | ± 3.5 pp | 800 | IVR + online | 3 |
| Probe Research | March 16, 2025 | [4] | 44 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 2 | — | ± 3.1 pp | 1,000 | IVR + online | 2 |
| Probe Research | February 6, 2025 | [5] | 28 | 45 | 22 | 3 | 2 | — | ± 4.0 pp | 600 | IVR + online | 17 |
| Probe Research | December 10, 2024 | [6] | 19 | 52 | 24 | 2 | 2 | — | ± 3.1 pp | 1,000 | IVR + online | 28 |
| Probe Research | September 15, 2024 | [7] | 21 | 50 | 24 | 2 | 3 | — | ± 3.1 pp | 1,000 | IVR + online | 26 |
| Probe Research | March 18, 2024 | [8] | 23 | 47 | 26 | 2 | — | 1 | ± 3.1 pp | 1,000 | IVR + online | 21 |
Results
Summary
| Party | Votes | Vote % | Vote +/- | Seats | Seat +/- | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 296,166 | 7.1pp | 7 / 14 (50%)
|
0 | ||
| Liberal | 260,610 | 12.9pp | 6 / 14 (43%)
|
2 | ||
| New Democratic | 70,574 | 12.0pp | 1 / 14 (7%)
|
2 | ||
| People's | 6,103 | 6.6pp | 0 / 14 (0%)
|
0 | ||
| Green | 4,678 | 1.0pp | 0 / 14 (0%)
|
0 | ||
| Independents and minor parties | 1,151 | 0.5pp | 0 / 14 (0%)
|
0 | ||
| Total | 639,282 | – | 14 / 14 (100%)
|
0 | ||
Comparison with national results
| Party | Popular vote % | Seats in caucus | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MB | Natl. | diff. | |||
| Conservative | 46.3 | 41.3 | +5.0 | 7 / 144 (5%)
| |
| Liberal | 40.8 | 43.7 | -2.9 | 6 / 169 (4%)
| |
| New Democratic | 11.0 | 6.3 | +4.7 | 1 / 7 (14%)
| |
| People's | 1.0 | 0.7 | +0.3 | no caucus | |
| Green | 0.7 | 1.2 | -0.5 | 0 / 1 (0%)
| |
| Total | – | – | – | 14 / 343 (4%)
| |
Student vote results
Student votes are mock elections that run parallel to actual elections, in which students not of voting age participate. They are administered by Student Vote Canada. These are for educational purposes and do not count towards the results.[10]
| Party | Leader | Seats | Popular vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elected | % | Δ | Votes | % | Δ (pp) | |||
| Conservative | Pierre Poilievre | 8 | 57.14 | 3 | 14,806 | 35.74 | 11.05 | |
| Liberal | Mark Carney | 4 | 28.57 | 3 | 12,142 | 29.31 | 7.64 | |
| New Democratic | Jagmeet Singh | 2 | 14.29 | 6 | 8,890 | 21.46 | 11.78 | |
| Green | Elizabeth May & Jonathan Pedneault | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2,885 | 6.96 | 1.97 | |
| People's | Maxime Bernier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2,041 | 4.93 | 3.01 | |
| Independent and minor parties | 0 | 0 | 0 | 666 | 1.61 | 1.92 | ||
| Total | 14 | 100.00 | 0 | 41,430 | 100.00 | – | ||
| Source: Student Vote Canada[11] | ||||||||
Notes
- ^ In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
- ^ Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
- ^ "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.
References
- ^ https://enr.elections.ca/Provinces.aspx?lang=e
- ^ "New House of Commons Seat Allocation" (Press release). Gatineau: Elections Canada. July 8, 2022. Archived from the original on July 8, 2022. Retrieved July 8, 2022.
- ^ "Cost of Living, U.S.-Canada Relations Are Top Federal Election Issues for Manitobans)". Probe Research Inc. March 21, 2025. Retrieved April 24, 2025.
- ^ "Liberals Surge Back To Life (March 2025 Manitoba Federal Voting Intentions)". Probe Research Inc. March 21, 2025. Retrieved March 23, 2025.
- ^ "February 2025 Manitoba Federal Voting Intentions". Probe Research Inc. February 28, 2025. Retrieved March 4, 2025.
- ^ Billeck, Scott (2024-12-13). "Already-strong support in Manitoba for federal Tories inches up in latest Probe-Free Press poll". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved 2024-12-16.
- ^ "Federal Political Preferences in Manitoba" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
- ^ "Federal Political Preferences in Manitoba" (PDF). Probe Research. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
- ^ https://enr.elections.ca/Provinces.aspx?lang=e
- ^ https://studentvote.ca/canada/
- ^ "Student Vote Canada 2025 — Results". Retrieved April 29, 2025.