Next Portuguese legislative election
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The next Portuguese legislative election will take place on or before 14 October 2029 to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 18th Legislature of Portugal. All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic will be at stake.
The 2025 elections resulted in a hung parliament and the formation of a minority government led by Luís Montenegro. An election may occur before the scheduled date if the President of Portugal dissolves Parliament for a snap election or if the Assembly of the Republic passes a motion of no confidence in the government. Early elections are more likely during minority governments, as the Prime Minister does not command a majority in the Assembly.[2]
Background
The centre-right to right-wing Democratic Alliance (AD), led by incumbent Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, won the largest number of seats. Compared to the 2024 election, the AD increased its vote share to 32%, and received 91 seats. However, this still fell short of the 116 seats required for a majority. The far-right populist party Chega (CH) increased its vote share to nearly 23% and won 60 seats, becoming the second largest party in Parliament.[3] The Socialist Party (PS) lost ground, falling to third place for the first time in democracy,[4] with also nearly 23% of the votes and gathered just 58 seats.[5]
The Liberal Initiative (IL) was able to get nine seats and gather five percent of the votes. LIVRE surpassed BE and PCP by gathering four percent of the votes and six seats.The other left-wing parties, the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Left Bloc (BE), achieved their worst results ever with the Communist-Green alliance getting just three percent of the votes and three seats, while BE lost four seats, electing a sole MP and getting two percent of the votes. People Animals Nature (PAN) was able to win, once again, just one seat, just like the Madeiran based Together for the People (JPP), who entered Parliament for the first time.
Eleven days after election day, on 29 May 2025, Luis Montenegro was asked by President of the Republic Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to form a government, once again a minority one.[6] The new government was sworn into office on 5 June 2025.[7]
Leadership changes and challenges
Socialist Party
After achieving a disappointing result and finishing in third place, then secretary-general Pedro Nuno Santos resigned on election night, 18 May 2025, leaving the party's president Carlos César as interim leader.[8] A leadership election was ultimately called for 27 and 28 June 2025.[9]
José Luís Carneiro announced his intention to run for the party's leadership on the day after the May 2025 election, while other figures like Mariana Vieira da Silva, Fernando Medina and Alexandra Leitão declined to run. After the deadline for submitting candidacies passed on 12 June 2025, Carneiro was the only candidate to submit one, making him the de facto winner of the ballot and the newly elected leader of the party.[10] This was confirmed by the ballot results, with Carneiro garnering more than 95% of the votes, albeit a turnout rate below 50%.[11][12]
| Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| José Luís Carneiro | 17,434 | 95.5 | |
| Blank/Invalid ballots | 829 | 4.5 | |
| Turnout | 18,263 | 48.9 | |
| Source: Results | |||
After the ballot, questions have arisen about the validity of this vote: According to the party's statutes, holding a party congress following a leadership vote is mandatory, but because there's no date yet for a congress, Carneiro's leadership could be labeled as interim, thus forcing a new leadership ballot at short notice.[13] The party's parliamentary leader, Eurico Brilhante Dias, confirmed that the election of Carneiro is to complete the term left vacant by Pedro Nuno Santos, which will expire in early 2026.[14]
Liberal Initiative
On 31 May 2025, Liberal Initiative President Rui Rocha announced his resignation as leader,[15] citing the new political scenario and the poor increase of the Liberal Initiative in the previous election as reasons for his resignation.[16] The party's secretary-general, Miguel Rangel, assumed the interim leadership until the next convention, after all the vice presidents refused to do so.[17] The leadership convention ended up being scheduled for 19 July 2025.[18]
On 4 June, Mariana Leitão, parliamentary leader and the party's former 2026 presidential candidate, announced her candidacy for the party's leadership, withrawing from the presidential race the following day,[19][20] while other speculated names like Bernardo Blanco, former MP from Lisbon, Mário Amorim Lopes, MP from Aveiro, and Rui Malheiro, candidate for the February 2025 leadership election, declined to run.[21][22][23] After the deadline for submitting candidacies passed on 4 July 2025, Leitão was the only candidate to submit one, making her the winner of the ballot and the newly elected leader of the party, although this will only be official after the leadership convention vote.[24]
Left Bloc
The Left Bloc is expected to hold a leadership convention on 29 and 30 November 2025, in which incumbent party leader, and sole MP, Mariana Mortágua has already announced her intention to run again. Due to the party's disappointing results in the May 2025 legislative elections, a challenge to her leadership is expected.[25] A group of critics from the leadership, led by Adelino Fortunato, have also announced their intention to run for the party's leadership in the convention.[26] Three more motions from opposition groups were also tabled.[27]
Politics of Portugal
The President of Portugal has the power to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic by his/her own will. Unlike in other countries, the President can refuse to dissolve the parliament at the request of the Prime Minister or the Assembly of the Republic and all the parties represented in Parliament. If the Prime Minister resigns, the President can appoint a new Prime Minister after listening to all the parties represented in Parliament and then the government programme must be subject to discussion by the Assembly of the Republic, whose members of parliament may present a motion to reject the upcoming government, or dissolve Parliament and call new elections.
Date
According to the Portuguese Constitution, an election must be called between 14 September and 14 October of the year that the legislature ends. The election is called by the President of Portugal but is not called at the request of the Prime Minister; however, the President must listen to all of the parties represented in Parliament and the election day must be announced at least 60 days before the election. If an election is called during an ongoing legislature (dissolution of parliament) it must be held at least after 55 days. Election day is the same in all multi-seats constituencies, and should fall on a Sunday or national holiday. The next legislative election must, therefore, take place no later than 14 October 2029.[28]
Electoral system
The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[29]
The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[30] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[31]
The distribution of MPs by electoral district for the 2025 legislative election was the following:[32]
| Constituency | Number of MPs | Map |
|---|---|---|
| Lisbon | 48 | |
| Porto | 40 | |
| Braga and Setúbal | 19 each | |
| Aveiro | 16 | |
| Leiria | 10 | |
| Coimbra, Faro and Santarém | 9 each | |
| Viseu | 8 | |
| Madeira | 6 | |
| Azores, Viana do Castelo and Vila Real | 5 each | |
| Castelo Branco | 4 | |
| Beja, Bragança, Évora and Guarda | 3 each | |
| Portalegre, Europe and Outside Europe | 2 each |
Parties
The table below lists parties currently represented in the Assembly of the Republic.
Opinion polling
Polling aggregations
| Polling aggregator | Last update | Lead | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politico | 15 Jun 2025 | 32 | 23 | 22 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| Marktest | 15 Jun 2025 | 29.9 | 21.8 | 21.7 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 8.1 |
| Europe Elects | 10 Jun 2025 | 33 | 24 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 2025 legislative election | 18 May 2025 | 31.8 91 |
22.8 58 |
22.8 60 |
5.4 9 |
4.1 6 |
2.9 3 |
2.0 1 |
1.4 1 |
9.0 |
See also
Notes
- ^ As leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD).
- ^ The Social Democratic Party (PPD/PSD) and the CDS - People's Party (CDS-PP) contested the 2024 election in a coalition called Democratic Alliance (AD) and won a combined 31.8% of the vote and elected 91 MPs to parliament. 89 of the MPs elected in 2025 are from PPD/PSD, while CDS-PP elected 2.
- ^ LIVRE has no formal single leader; the party has a 15-member leadership committee of which Rui Tavares serves as spokesperson.[1]
- ^ The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 2025 election in a coalition called Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 2.9% of the vote and elected 3 MPs to parliament. The 3 MPs elected in 2025 are all from PCP. PEV elected zero.
- ^ Some sources state that People Animals Nature (PAN) is neither on the left nor the right.[33]
References
- ^ ""É uma noite triste para o Livre": Rui Tavares assume derrota, Paupério diz que "nada acaba aqui" e já olha para 2029". CNN Portugal (in Portuguese). Retrieved 10 June 2024.
- ^ "Para que serviram estas eleições?". CNN Portugal (in Portuguese). Retrieved 31 May 2025.
- ^ "Deputados da emigração divididos entre Chega e AD, PS não elegeu: Ventura confirmado como líder do maior partido da oposição". Expresso. 28 May 2025. Retrieved 28 May 2025.
- ^ "Portugal's far-right Chega becomes main opposition party". Reuters. 29 May 2025. Retrieved 1 June 2025.
- ^ "Centre-right party wins Portuguese election as far right makes record gains". The Guardian. 19 May 2025. Retrieved 19 May 2025.
- ^ "Montenegro indigitado como primeiro-ministro pelo presidente da República". RTP (in Portuguese). 29 May 2025. Retrieved 29 May 2025.
- ^ ""Vamos ao trabalho!": XXV Governo Constitucional já tomou posse com "maioria maior"". Sapo (in Portuguese). 5 June 2025. Retrieved 5 June 2025.
- ^ "Líder do PS demite-se após resultados eleitorais". SIC (in Portuguese). 18 May 2025. Retrieved 31 May 2025.
- ^ Portugal, Rádio e Televisão de (24 May 2025). "Carlos César propõe eleições internas do PS a 27 e 28 de junho". Carlos César propõe eleições internas do PS a 27 e 28 de junho (in Portuguese). Retrieved 31 May 2025.
- ^ "José Luís Carneiro é candidato único à sucessão de Pedro Nuno Santos". Sapo (in Portuguese). 13 June 2025. Retrieved 13 June 2025.
- ^ "José Luís Carneiro é candidato único à sucessão de Pedro Nuno Santos". Sapo (in Portuguese). 13 June 2025. Retrieved 13 June 2025.
- ^ "José Luís Carneiro eleito secretário-geral do PS". CNN Portugal (in Portuguese). Retrieved 28 June 2025.
- ^ Henrique, João Pedro (4 July 2025). "Carneiro forçado a ir a votos no PS outra vez". Expresso (in Portuguese). Retrieved 4 July 2025.
- ^ Lusa, Agência (4 July 2025). "José Luís Carneiro vai terminar mandato que ficou vago com saída de Pedro Nuno". Eco (in Portuguese). Retrieved 4 July 2025.
- ^ ""Melhor resultado de sempre" não foi suficiente. Rui Rocha deixa liderança da IL por não ter conseguido o peso que o partido esperava". Expresso (in Portuguese). 31 May 2025. Retrieved 31 May 2025.
- ^ Portugal, Rádio e Televisão de (31 May 2025). ""Novo cenário político". Rui Rocha demite-se da liderança da Iniciativa Liberal". RTP (in Portuguese). Retrieved 31 May 2025.
- ^ Redação (1 June 2025). "Iniciativa liberal vai para eleições". Jornal SOL (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 1 June 2025.
- ^ Ralha, Leonardo (15 June 2025). "Iniciativa Liberal vai eleger nova liderança a 19 de julho". Diário de Notícias (in Portuguese). Retrieved 15 June 2025.
- ^ "Mariana Leitão é candidata à presidência da Iniciativa Liberal". CNN Portugal (in Portuguese). 4 June 2025. Retrieved 4 June 2025.
- ^ Mesquita, Maria Lopes, Joana (5 June 2025). "IL une-se em torno de Mariana Leitão, que abdica de candidatura presidencial". PÚBLICO (in Portuguese). Retrieved 5 June 2025.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ "Liderança da IL? "Não faria sentido concorrer, eu não serei candidato"". Notícias ao Minuto (in Portuguese). 1 June 2025. Retrieved 1 June 2025.
- ^ ""Não podíamos estar melhor servidos": Mário Amorim Lopes apoia Mariana Leitão". Público (in Portuguese). 5 June 2025. Retrieved 5 June 2025.
- ^ Pinto, Sónia Peres (17 June 2025). "Rui Malheiro não é candidato à liderança da IL". Jornal SOL (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 17 June 2025.
- ^ "Mariana Leitão é candidata única a uma IL sem "medo de incomodar"". Público (in Portuguese). 6 July 2025. Retrieved 6 July 2025.
- ^ Mesquita, Joana (24 May 2025). "Mortágua convoca convenção do BE para final de Novembro, críticos pedem a sua demissão". Público (in Portuguese). Retrieved 31 May 2025.
- ^ DN/Lusa (27 June 2025). "Críticos de Mortágua voltam a apresentar moção 'S' na próxima convenção do Bloco". Diário de Notícias (in Portuguese). Retrieved 29 June 2025.
- ^ Lusa (4 July 2025). "Mortágua admite erros e vai enfrentar quatro moções opositoras". Sic Notícias (in Portuguese). Retrieved 4 July 2025.
- ^ "Electoral law to the Assembly of the Republic" (PDF).
- ^ "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic" (PDF).
- ^ "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 21 October 2015.
- ^ Gallagher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities" (PDF).
- ^ "Mapa Oficial n.º 1/2025" (PDF). CNE – Comissão Nacional de Eleições. 24 March 2025. Retrieved 24 March 2025.
- ^ Martins, Paula (25 January 2022). "The politics of Portugal – who are the parties?". Reuters. Archived from the original on 18 November 2022. Retrieved 7 February 2022.