2026 Baden-Württemberg state election
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
154 seats in the current Landtag of Baden-Württemberg (120 plus overhang and leveling seats) 78 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The next election to the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg is scheduled to take place on March 8th, 2026.[1]
Background
In the 2021 state election, the Greens, led by Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann, remained the strongest party with 32.6%, giving them their best nationwide result ever in a state election. The CDU, since 2016 junior partner in the green-black government coalition, achieved its poorest result ever in Baden-Württemberg with 24.1%; leading candidates Eisenmann and Thomas Strobl were not elected, but Strobl remained minister. The SPD also achieved its worst result with 11%, but again became the strongest force among the three opposition parties. The FDP achieved one of its best results with 10.5%. The AfD, which had entered the parliament in 2016 as strongest opposition force, suffered losses and dropped to fifth place with 9.7%.
The Third Kretschmann cabinet was formed; another Green–CDU coalition.[2]
In April 2022, the Landtag amended the state's electoral law, so that a second vote and closed list was added. In addition, the voting age was lowered to age 16.[3][4]
Winfried Kretschmann has declared that he will not stand for a fourth term, while Cem Özdemir has announced in 2024 his intention to lead the Greens in the state, and thus did not run in the 2025 federal election. For CDU in Baden-Württemberg, Manuel Hagel is the new leader, and according to current polls, has good chances to become Minister-President in 2026. As the Alternative for Germany is rejected by all other parties, the CDU will likely have to continue the coalition with the Greens, but now as leaders.
Opinion polls
Graphical summary
Party polling
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
Grüne | CDU | SPD | FDP | AfD | Linke | FW | BSW | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infratest dimap | 7–13 May 2025 | 1,146 | 20 | 31 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 7 | – | 4 | 4 | 11 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 3–10 May 2025 | 1,100 | 23 | 26 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 23 | 5.5 | – | 1.5 | 4 | 3 |
| INSA | 29 Apr–6 May 2025 | 1,000 | 17 | 31 | 12 | 6 | 19 | 8 | – | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| Federal election | 23 Feb 2025 | – | 13.6 | 31.6 | 14.2 | 5.6 | 19.8 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 11.8 |
| INSA | 3–10 Feb 2025 | 1,000 | 20 | 31 | 13 | 5 | 18 | 4 | – | 5 | 4 | 11 |
| Infratest dimap | 5–10 Dec 2024 | 1,156 | 22 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 15 | – | – | 4 | 9 | 11 |
| INSA | 25 Nov–2 Dec 2024 | 1,000 | 20 | 34 | 11 | 6 | 17 | – | – | 6 | 3 | 14 |
| Infratest dimap | 1–8 Oct 2024 | 1,166 | 18 | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | – | – | 5 | 9 | 16 |
| INSA | 26 Sep–4 Oct 2024 | 2,000 | 18 | 32 | 13 | 6 | 18 | 3 | – | 6 | 4 | 14 |
| INSA | 5–12 Aug 2024 | 1,000 | 19 | 31 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 3 | – | 8 | 5 | 11 |
| INSA | 4–11 Jun 2024 | 1,000 | 19 | 30 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 3 | – | 7 | 7 | 11 |
| European Parliament election | 9 Jun 2024 | – | 13.8 | 32.0 | 11.6 | 6.8 | 14.7 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 10.9 | 17.3 |
| Infratest dimap | 7–14 May 2024 | 1,148 | 22 | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | – | 3 | 4 | 7 | 10 |
| INSA | 4–11 Mar 2024 | 1,000 | 23 | 30 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 3 | – | 7 | 3 | 7 |
| Infratest dimap | 11–16 Jan 2024 | 1,152 | 22 | 32 | 9 | 7 | 18 | – | 3 | – | 9 | 10 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 23–27 Oct 2023 | 1,100 | 20 | 30 | 10 | 7 | 22 | 1.5 | 3 | – | 6.5 | 10 |
| 20 | 27 | 9 | 8 | 20 | 2 | – | 6 | 8 | 7 | |||
| Infratest dimap | 21–25 Sep 2023 | 1,162 | 22 | 29 | 12 | 8 | 20 | – | – | 9 | 7 | |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 17–24 Jul 2023 | 1,000 | 25.5 | 24 | 11 | 7 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 6.5 | 1.5 | |
| Infratest dimap | 13–18 Jul 2023 | 1,185 | 24 | 26 | 13 | 7 | 19 | – | – | 11 | 2 | |
| INSA | 20–27 Mar 2023 | 1,000 | 28 | 27 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 3 | – | 8 | 1 | |
| Infratest dimap | 16–21 Mar 2023 | 1,178 | 26 | 27 | 15 | 10 | 12 | – | – | 10 | 1 | |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 7–13 Mar 2023 | 1,005 | 28 | 32 | 10 | 6.5 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 5.5 | 4 | |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 18–22 Dec 2022 | 1,000 | 28 | 23 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 2 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 5 | |
| INSA | 24–31 Oct 2022 | 1,000 | 26 | 28 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 3 | – | 7 | 2 | |
| Infratest dimap | 20–25 Oct 2022 | 1,175 | 27 | 26 | 15 | 9 | 13 | 3 | – | 7 | 1 | |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 16–22 Oct 2022 | 1,014 | 27.5 | 22 | 15 | 8 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 4.5 | 5.5 | |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 8–15 Aug 2022 | 1,300 | 30.5 | 24 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 2.5 | 3 | 5 | 6.5 | |
| INSA | 4–11 Jul 2022 | 1,000 | 29 | 26 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 3 | – | 7 | 3 | |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 3–10 Jun 2022 | 1,000 | 30.5 | 20.5 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 4 | – | 7 | 10 | |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 5–6 May 2022 | 1,040 | 27.5 | 20.5 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 3 | – | 7 | 7 | |
| Infratest dimap | 12–19 Apr 2022 | 1,170 | 28 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 3 | – | 8 | 2 | |
| INSA | 28 Mar–4 Apr 2022 | 1,000 | 25 | 23 | 19 | 11 | 10 | 3 | – | 9 | 2 | |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 8–16 Mar 2022 | 1,600 | 27 | 25 | 16 | 14 | 9 | 2 | – | 7 | 2 | |
| Infratest dimap | 4–8 Mar 2022 | 1,152 | 27 | 24 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 3 | – | 6 | 3 | |
| Infratest dimap | 13–18 Jan 2022 | 1,166 | 26 | 23 | 16 | 12 | 11 | 4 | – | 8 | 3 | |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 23–30 Dec 2021 | 1,002 | 26 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 8.5 | 3 | – | 4.5 | 6 | |
| Infratest dimap | 7–12 Oct 2021 | 1,162 | 27 | 17 | 20 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | |
| INSA | 4–11 Oct 2021 | 1,000 | 24 | 20 | 21 | 16 | 9 | 3 | – | 7 | 3 | |
| 2021 federal election | 26 Sep 2021 | – | 17.2 | 24.8 | 21.6 | 15.3 | 9.6 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 20–28 Jul 2021 | – | 31 | 22 | 12 | 17 | 7.5 | 3 | – | – | 7.5 | 9 |
| 2021 state election | 14 Mar 2021 | – | 32.6 | 24.1 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 8.5 |
Minister-President polling
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
None/ Unsure |
Lead | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kretschmann Grüne |
Özdemir Grüne |
Hagel CDU |
Frohnmaier AfD |
Stoch SPD | |||||
| Infratest dimap | 7–13 May 2025 | 1,146 | – | 39 | 18 | 7 | – | 36 | 21 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 3–10 May 2025 | 1,100 | – | 23 | 21 | 11 | 8 | 37 | 2 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 17–24 Jul 2023 | 1,000 | 52 | – | 21 | – | – | 27 | 31 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 7–13 Mar 2023 | 1,005 | 55 | – | 26 | – | – | 19 | 29 |
| – | 46 | 33 | – | – | 21 | 13 |
Constituency pluralities
| Polling firm | Release date | Grüne | CDU | SPD | FDP | AfD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wahlkreisprognose | 12 May 2025 | 18 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 27 Oct 2023 | 12 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 24 Jul 2023 | 26 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 13 Mar 2023 | 17 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 22 Dec 2022 | 39 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 23 Oct 2022 | 43 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 16 Aug 2022 | 40 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 10 Jun 2022 | 59 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 7 May 2022 | 54 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 17 Mar 2022 | 38 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 30 Dec 2021 | 44 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 28 Jul 2021 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 2021 state election | 14 Mar 2021 | 58 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
References
- ^ "State election in BW to take place on March 8, 2026". SWR (in German). 18 March 2025.
- ^ "Green-black coalition in Baden-Württemberg is in place". Der Spiegel (in German). 1 May 2021.
- ^ Soldt, Rüdiger; Stuttgart. "Baden-Württemberg: Bläht das neue Wahlrecht den Landtag auf?". FAZ.NET (in German). ISSN 0174-4909. Retrieved 2022-10-09.
- ^ "Gesetz zur Änderung der Verfassung des Landes Baden-Württemberg und des Gesetzes über die Landtagswahlen" (PDF). landtag-bw.de. 6 April 2022.