2024 Texas Senate election|
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Majority party
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Minority party
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| Leader
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Angela Paxton
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Carol Alvarado
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| Party
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Republican
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Democratic
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| Leader since
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September 16, 2023
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January 8, 2020
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| Leader's seat
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8th–McKinney
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6th–Houston
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| Last election
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19 seats, 54.06%
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12 seats, 41.94%
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| Seats before
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19
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12
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| Seats won
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8
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7
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| Seats after
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20
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11
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| Seat change
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1
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1
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| Popular vote
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2,196,004
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2,678,156
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| Percentage
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45.00%
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54.88%
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| Swing
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9.06%
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12.94%
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Results by seat gains Results by vote share Republican hold Republican gain
Democratic hold
No election
Republican: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70%
Democratic: 60–70% ≥90% |
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Elections to the Texas Senate were held on November 5, 2024, for 15 of the 31 Senate districts across the state of Texas. Numerous other federal, state, and local elections were held on this date. The winners of this election will serve full four-year terms covering the 89th Texas Legislature and the 90th Texas Legislature. Republicans have held a majority in the Texas Senate since January 14, 1997, as a result of the 1996 elections. Republicans won eight of the fifteen seats up for election, flipping one from the Democrats. Due to the high number of uncontested seats, however, Democratic candidates received more votes statewide than Republican candidates.
Primary elections were held on March 5, 2024, and any necessary runoffs were held on May 28.[1]
Partisan background
In the 2020 presidential election in Texas, Republican Donald Trump won 19 State Senate districts, while Democrat Joe Biden won 12 districts.[2] In the 2024 presidential election in Texas, Donald Trump won 2 more districts than he did in 2020 with 21, while Democrat Kamala Harris won 10 districts. In the aftermath of the 2024 election, Senate district 20 flipped to Trump by 4.3%, however incumbent Democratic State Senator Juan Hinojosa held the seat in a uncontested general election.
2020 Election results
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Trump 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
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Biden 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
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2024 Election results
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Trump 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%
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Harris 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
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Background
Republicans expanded their majority by one seat to a 19–12 margin in the 2022 elections, picking up a seat anchored in Tarrant County that had been redrawn to significantly favor them but failing to win a competitive seat in the Rio Grande Valley.[3]
During the regular session, the legislature expanded school armed security measures, banned diversity, equity and inclusion offices at universities, and allowed school districts to hire or volunteer chaplains for mental health support for students.[4][5][6] Republican infighting in the House led to the collapse of a school voucher bill during the regular session despite the Senate easily passing it. Governor Greg Abbott vowed to call special sessions until it passed.[7] Efforts to legalize online sports betting and casino gambling found a resurgence in the House late in the session, with a bill to legalize online sports betting passing the House.[8] Neither proposal received any hearings in the Senate due to opposition from lieutenant governor Dan Patrick.[9][10]
On May 27, 2023, the House voted 121–23 to impeach attorney general Ken Paxton after a House committee found that he had used taxpayer funds to settle a legal dispute.[11][12][13] The Senate voted to acquit him of all charges in September 2023.[14]
Retirements
One incumbent did not seek re-election.
Republicans
- District 30: Drew Springer is retiring.[15]
Incumbents defeated
In the general election
Democrats
- District 27: Morgan LaMantia lost to Adam Hinojosa.[16]
Special elections
- District 15: John Whitmire (D) was elected Mayor of Houston in 2023 and resigned from the Senate on December 31, 2023.[17] Molly Cook won the special election held on May 4, 2024.[18][19]
Campaign
Democrat Nathan Johnson was the only incumbent senator being challenged in the primary elections.[21] Republican Drew Springer's retirement and Democrat John Whitmire's resignation created open races for their seats.[15][17] Democrat Morgan LaMantia was the only senator expected to face a competitive general election.[22]
Predictions
Due to the size of the Republicans' majority and the low number of competitive seats, most analysts consider a change in control of the chamber to be unlikely.
Statewide
Competitive districts
Summary of results by district
† - Incumbent not seeking re-election
Detailed results
District 6
Incumbent Democrat Carol Alvarado is running for re-election.
District 7
Incumbent Republican Paul Bettencourt is running for re-election.
District 8
Incumbent Republican Angela Paxton is running for re-election.
District 10
Incumbent Republican Phil King is running for re-election.
District 12
Incumbent Republican Tan Parker is running for re-election.
District 14
Incumbent Democrat Sarah Eckhardt is running for re-election unopposed.
District 15
Former Senator, Democrat John Whitmire was elected Mayor of Houston in 2023 and resigned from this seat, creating a vacancy.[17] A special election to fill his unexpired term was held on May 4, 2024, with Molly Cook winning.[18] Cook narrowly won the Democratic primary runoff for a full term on May 28.[27]
District 16
Incumbent Democrat Nathan M. Johnson is running for re-election. He defeated state representative Victoria Neave in the Democratic primary and is unopposed in the general election.[21]
District 17
Incumbent Republican Joan Huffman is running for re-election.
District 20
Incumbent Democrat Juan Hinojosa is running for re-election unopposed.
District 23
Incumbent Democrat Royce West is running for re-election unopposed.
District 25
Incumbent Republican Donna Campbell is running for re-election.
District 27
Incumbent Democrat Morgan LaMantia is running for re-election. She faces a rematch against Republican Adam Hinojosa, whom she narrowly defeated in 2022.[28][29] This race is the only one in the state expected to have a competitive general election.[22] Hinojosa has been endorsed by former Democratic senator Eddie Lucio Jr., who held the seat before LaMantia, citing Hinojosa's pro-life position on abortion.[30]
District 29
Incumbent Democrat Cesar Blanco is running for re-election unopposed.
District 30
Incumbent Republican Drew Springer is retiring.[15]
Notes
- ^ CNalysis has two separate sets of predictions: Classic (Analyst ratings only), and Expanded (Classic alongside recent statewide election results). This table uses the Classic set.
- ^ Elected in a May 4, 2024, special election to fill incumbent vacancy left by Democrat John Whitmire, who resigned to become Mayor of Houston on December 31, 2023.
See also
References
- ^ "Texas State Senate elections, 2024". Ballotpedia. Retrieved June 16, 2023.
- ^ Blank, Joshua (January 10, 2022). "Comparing Trump-Biden Vote Shares in Old and New Texas Senate Districts". The Texas Politics Project. Retrieved April 3, 2025.
- ^ Barragán, Zach Despart and James (November 9, 2022). "Republicans narrowly increase their majorities in Texas Legislature". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved February 13, 2024.
- ^ Henvey, Winston (September 15, 2023). "Learn how Allen ISD's new armed security aims to keep students safe". Allen American. Star Local Media. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023.
- ^ McGee, Kate (April 19, 2023). "Texas Senate approves bill that would ban diversity programs in public universities". Texas Tribune. Archived from the original on September 29, 2023.
- ^ Henvey, Winston (November 15, 2023). "Allen ISD considers policy around chaplains for mental health support". Allen American. Star Local Media. Archived from the original on November 20, 2023.
- ^ Watkins, Kate McGee and Matthew (May 30, 2023). "The regular Texas legislative session started with a record budget surplus and ended with an impeached attorney general". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved February 13, 2024.
- ^ Svitek, Patrick (May 11, 2023). "In dramatic vote, Texas House approves online sports betting measure". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved October 7, 2024.
- ^ Autullo, Ryan (May 12, 2023). "Eight resort-style casinos in Texas? Not likely after proposal dies in House". Austin American-Statesman. Retrieved October 7, 2024.
- ^ "The Push for Casino Gambling and Sports Betting in Texas: Key Legislation and Debate". Texas Policy Research. September 18, 2024. Retrieved October 7, 2024.
- ^ Despart, Zach; Barragán, James (May 27, 2023). "Texas AG Ken Paxton impeached, suspended from duties pending outcome of Senate trial". The Texas Tribune. Archived from the original on May 27, 2023. Retrieved May 27, 2023.
- ^ Vertuno, Jim; Bleiberg, Jake (May 27, 2023). "Why Texas' GOP-controlled House wants to impeach Republican attorney general". AP News. Archived from the original on May 26, 2023. Retrieved May 27, 2023.
- ^ Plohetski, Tony (May 27, 2023). "How a $3.3M settlement against Texas AG Ken Paxton put him on path to impeachment vote". Austin American-Statesman. Archived from the original on May 28, 2023. Retrieved May 28, 2023.
- ^ Timm, Jane C. (September 16, 2023). "Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton acquitted in impeachment trial". NBC News. Retrieved February 13, 2024.
- ^ a b c Svitek, Patrick (November 7, 2023). "State Sen. Drew Springer will not seek reelection in 2024". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved December 24, 2023.
- ^ Downey, Renzo (November 6, 2024). "Adam Hinojosa flips Texas Senate seat, becomes first Republican to represent Rio Grande Valley district since Reconstruction". Texas Tribune. Retrieved November 7, 2024.
- ^ a b c Church, Abby (January 1, 2024). "John Whitmire is officially sworn in as Houston mayor in private ceremony". Houston Chronicle. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
- ^ a b Cheng, Yilun (January 19, 2024). "Texas Senate hopefuls vie to fill Mayor John Whitmire's vacated seat". Houston Chronicle. Retrieved January 20, 2023.
- ^ Harris, Cayla (May 5, 2024). "Houston's Whitmire to seek state Senate seat". Houston Chronicle. Retrieved May 5, 2024.
- ^ "Texas State Senate District 15 Special General". DDHQ. May 5, 2024. Retrieved May 5, 2024.
- ^ a b Jankowski, Philip; Jeffers Jr., Gromer (December 13, 2023). "Texas Rep. Victoria Neave Criado to challenge state Sen. Nathan Johnson in March primary". Dallas News. Retrieved February 13, 2024.
- ^ a b Svitek, Patrick (March 15, 2023). "Texas Democrats and Republicans are on the hunt for rare chances to flip seats in 2024". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved February 13, 2024.
- ^ "24 TX Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com. Retrieved March 23, 2024.
- ^ Jacobson, Louis (June 18, 2024). "2024's Battleground State Legislative Chambers". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved June 19, 2024.
- ^ "2022-2023 Election Data". cnalysis. February 29, 2024. Retrieved March 16, 2024.
- ^ "24 TX Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com. Retrieved March 16, 2024.
- ^ Cheng, Yilun (May 29, 2024). "ER nurse Molly Cook defeats Jarvis Johnson in race for John Whitmire's Texas Senate seat". Houston Chronicle. Retrieved May 29, 2024.
- ^ Yañez, Alejandra (December 14, 2022). "LaMantia remains winner after recount for Senate District 27". KVEO-TV. Retrieved February 13, 2024.
- ^ Dozier, Dylan (December 2, 2023). "Hinojosa files for rematch". STexasNews.com. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
- ^ Montoya, Luis (October 8, 2024). "Lucio endorses Hinojosa in Senate District 27". Rio Grande Guardian. Retrieved October 14, 2024.
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