2015 Canadian federal election in Quebec

2015 Canadian federal election in Quebec
October 19, 2015 (2015-10-19)
All 78 Quebec seats in the House of Commons of Canada
Opinion polls
Registered6,393,478
Turnout4,303,758 (67.3)[1]
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Justin Trudeau Tom Mulcair Stephen Harper
Party Liberal New Democratic Conservative
Leader since April 14, 2013 March 24, 2012 March 20, 2004
Last election 7 seats, 14.2% 59 seats, 42.9% 5 seats, 16.5%
Seats before 7 54[a] 5
Seats won 40 16 12
Seat change 33 38 7
Popular vote 1,515,673 1,075,366 709,164
Percentage 35.7% 25.4% 16.7%
Swing  21.5 pp  17.5 pp  0.2 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Gilles Duceppe Elizabeth May
Party Bloc Québécois Green
Leader since June 10, 2015* August 27, 2006
Last election 4 seats, 23.4% 0 seat, 2.1%
Seats before 2 0[b]
Seats won 10 0
Seat change 8 0
Popular vote 821,144 95,395
Percentage 19.3% 2.3%
Swing  4.1 pp 0.2 pp
Prime Minister before election

Stephen Harper
Conservative

Prime Minister after election

Justin Trudeau
Liberal

In the 2015 Canadian federal election, there were 78 members of Parliament elected to the House of Commons from the province of Quebec, making up 23.1% of all members of the House.

Background

2012 electoral redistribution

The 2015 Canadian federal election was the first election to utilize the electoral districts established following the 2012 Canadian federal electoral redistribution. The House of Commons increased from 308 seats to 338 seats, with Quebec's number of seats increasing from 75 to 78 seats. This made the average population per constituency in Quebec 104,671 (according to the 2011 Canadian census), which was 672 more people per electoral district than the national average.[2]

2011 results transposed onto 2013 boundaries
Party MPs
2011 actual result 2011 notional result Change
New Democratic 59 61 2
Liberal 7 8 1
Conservative 5 5 0
Bloc Québécois 4 4 0
Total seats 75 78 3

Timeline

See also: By-elections to the 41st Canadian Parliament
Changes in Quebec seats held (2011–2015)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Saint-Maurice—Champlain January 10, 2012 Lise St-Denis █ New Democratic Crossed the floor █ Liberal
Jonquière—Alma February 27, 2013 Claude Patry █ New Democratic Crossed the floor █ Bloc Québécois
Bourassa June 2, 2013 Denis Coderre █ Liberal Resigned to run for mayor of Montreal November 25, 2013 Emmanuel Dubourg █ Liberal
Ahuntsic September 12, 2013. Maria Mourani █ Bloc Québécois Expelled from caucus █ Independent[c][3]
Montcalm June 6, 2014 Manon Perreault █ New Democratic Suspended from caucus █ Independent[d]
Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia August 12, 2014. Jean-François Fortin █ Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus █ Independent
Verchères—Les Patriotes August 20, 2014 Sana Hassainia █ New Democratic Changed affiliation █ Independent
Richmond—Arthabaska August 25, 2014 André Bellavance █ Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus █ Independent
Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia October 21, 2014. Jean-François Fortin █ Independent Co-founded Strength in Democracy █ Str. in Demo.
Repentigny October 21, 2014 Jean-François Larose █ New Democratic Co-founded Strength in Democracy █ Str. in Demo.
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel November 5, 2014 Massimo Pacetti █ Liberal Suspended from caucus █ Independent

Opinion polling

See also: Opinion polling for the 2015 Canadian federal election

Predictions

Results

Summary

Quebec summary seat results in the 2015 Canadian federal election[4][5]
Party Votes Vote % Vote +/- Seats Seat +/-
Liberal 1,515,673
35.7%
 21.5pp
40 / 78 (51%)
 33
New Democratic 1,075,366
25.4%
 17.5pp
16 / 78 (21%)
 38[e]
Conservative 709,164
16.7%
 0.2pp
12 / 78 (15%)
 7
Bloc Québécois 821,144
19.3%
 4.1pp
10 / 78 (13%)
 8
Green 95,395
2.3%
 0.2pp
0 / 78 (0%)
 0[f]
Strength in Democracy 8,059
0.2%
 0.2pp
0 / 78 (0%)
 2[g]
Independent 3,438
0.1%
 pp
0 / 78 (0%)
 4[h]
Other 13,248
0.3%
 pp
0 / 78 (0%)
 0
Total 4,241,487
100%
 –
78 / 78 (100%)
 3[i]

Comparison with national results

Results by party
Party Popular vote % Seats in caucus
QC Natl. avg. diff.
Liberal 35.7 39.5 -3.8
40 / 184 (22%)
New Democratic 25.4 19.7 +5.7
16 / 44 (36%)
Conservative 16.7 31.9 -15.2
12 / 99 (12%)
Bloc Québécois 19.3 4.7 +14.6
10 / 10 (100%)
Green 2.3 3.4 -1.1
0 / 1 (0%)
  Total – – –
78 / 338 (23%)

Notes

  1. ^ Includes José Núñez-Melo, who sat as a member of the NDP at the dissolution of Parliament, but ran as a Green Party candidate in the 2015 election. Does not include Maria Mourani, who sat as an independent at the dissolution of Parliament, but ran as an NDP candidate in the 2015 election.
  2. ^ Does not include José Núñez-Melo, who sat as a member of the NDP at the dissolution of Parliament, but ran as a Green Party candidate in the 2015 election
  3. ^ On 19 November 2014, Mourani announced that she would run for the NDP in the next election, though as per the party's policy on crossing the floor she remained an independent MP until the election.
  4. ^ Sat as an independent for the remainder of her term, but ran as a Strength in Democracy candidate in the 2015 election.
  5. ^ Includes José Núñez-Melo, who sat as a member of the NDP at the dissolution of Parliament, but ran as a Green Party candidate in the 2015 election. Does not include Maria Mourani, who sat as an independent at the dissolution of Parliament, but ran as an NDP candidate in the 2015 election.
  6. ^ Does not include José Núñez-Melo, who sat as a member of the NDP at the dissolution of Parliament, but ran as a Green Party candidate in the 2015 election
  7. ^ Does not include Manon Perreault, who sat as an independent at the dissolution of Parliament, but ran as a Strength in Democracy candidate in the 2015 election.
  8. ^ Includes Manon Perreault, who sat as an independent at the dissolution of Parliament, but ran as a Strength in Democracy candidate in the 2015 election. Includes Maria Mourani, who sat as an independent at the dissolution of Parliament, but ran as an NDP candidate in the 2015 election.
  9. ^ Quebec gained 3 seats in the electoral redistribution.

References

  1. ^ "Forty-Second General Election 2015". www.elections.ca.
  2. ^ Canada, Elections. "Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2022". Elections Canada.
  3. ^ "Former Bloc member Maria Mourani joins NDP — but not as MP". Toronto Star. The Canadian Press. November 19, 2014. Retrieved June 1, 2025.
  4. ^ "Forty-Second General Election 2015". www.elections.ca.
  5. ^ "Forty-Second General Election 2015". www.elections.ca.
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