1998 Dublin North by-election

1998 Dublin North by-election
11 March 1998
Turnout33,046 (50.2%)
 
Ryan
Kennedy
Jenkinson
Nominee Seán Ryan Michael Kennedy Philip Jenkinson
Party Labour Fianna Fáil Fine Gael
First preferences 11,012 10,334 3,185
Percentage 33.3% 31.3% 9.6%
Final count 16,896 13,633 –
 
Martin
Nominee Clare Daly Paul Martin Paul Donnelly
Party Socialist Party Green Sinn Féin
First preferences 2,692 1,092 1,088
Percentage 8.2% 3.3% 3.3%
Final count – – –
 
Ruigrok
Goulding
Keaveney
Nominee Rena Condrot Ruigrok Ciaran Goulding Angela Keaveney
Party Independent Independent Christian Solidarity
First preferences 780 682 565
Percentage 2.4% 2.1% 1.7%
Final count – – –
TD before election

Ray Burke
Fianna Fáil

Elected TD

Seán Ryan
Labour

A by-election was held in the Dáil Éireann Dublin North constituency in Ireland on 11 March 1998. It followed the resignation of Fianna Fáil Teachta Dála (TD) Ray Burke on 7 October 1997. The by-election was won by Senator Seán Ryan of the Labour Party.

19 candidates contested, including 9 independents. The election took 14 counts to declare a winner with 8 candidates getting less than 1% of the first preference vote. On the same day, a by-election took place in Limerick East; both were the final occasions which Democratic Left contested by-elections.

Background

See also: Ray Burke (Irish politician)

Fianna Fáíl TD for Dublin North, Ray Burke, was appointed as Minister for Foreign Affairs following the 1997 general election, however allegations resurfaced that Burke had received IR£80,000 from a property developer.[1] While maintaining his innocence, Burke resigned both as a minister and as a TD on 7 October 1997.[2] Under Irish law, this forced a by-election to be held in Dublin North. The writs for the election were moved on 19 February 1998.[3]

Candidate selection

Democratic Left

This by-election was the first and only time Democratic Left ran a candidate in this constituency. Their candidate, language school co-owner Joe Holohan, had contested the constituency at the 1981 general election for the Labour Party, but later became a founding member of Democratic Left.[4]

Fianna Fáil

Initial reports suggested that Fianna Fáil were struggling to find a candidate to defend the seat. Candidates who declined to seek the nomination included Graham Turley, the widower of murdered crime reporter Veronica Guerin,[5] and former Dublin GAA goalkeeper John O'Leary.[6] Other speculated candidates included Eimear Mulhearn, daughter of former Taoiseach Charles Haughey[7] and Amy Ahern, niece of Taoiseach Bertie Ahern.[5] On 15 December 1997, Cllr. Michael Kennedy won the party's nomination, defeating nurse Catherine Clarke and barrister Eoin Martin.[8]

Fine Gael

Five candidates sought the Fine Gael nomination; Lusk-based county councillor Philip Jenkinson, vice chairman of Young Fine Gael Sean Dolphin, businessman Michael Brannigan, Niall Atkins and Steve McCullough.[9][10] On 11 December, the party announced Cllr. Philip Jenkinson as their selected candidate for the by-election.[11]

Green Party

The Green Party, who had held their seat in this constituency narrowly at the last general election, nominated healthcare worker Paul Martin from Portrane.[4]

Labour Party

The Labour Party nominated Senator Seán Ryan, a former TD for the constituency who had lost his seat at the 1997 general election.[10]

Progressive Democrats

Finian Fallon, who unsuccessfully contested the constituency at the 1997 general election for the Progressive Democrats, was the party's nominee at this election. The son of murdered garda Richard Fallon,[12] Fallon rejected calls for a voting pact between the Progressive Democrats and Fianna Fáil.[4] His director for the election was former Fianna Fáil minister Martin O'Donoghue.[13]

Sinn Féin

Paul Donnelly contested this election for Sinn Féin.[4]

Socialist Party

On 30 October 1997, the Socialist Party selected Clare Daly to be their candidate in the by-election. 29-year-old Daly had unsuccessfully contested the constituency at the 1997 general election, receiving 3000 votes. She had previously been president of Dublin City University Students' Union and a coordinator in the anti-water charge movement in Dublin North.[14]

Independents and others

Gertie Shields, founder of Mothers Against Drink Driving and independent member of Balbriggan Town Commission, declared that she would contest the election in December 1997.[15] Elaine Rooney from Portrane ran as a single-issue candidate against the Eastern Health Board's planned special care unit at St. Ita's Hospital,[4] while another single-issue candidate Rena Condrot Ruigrok ran in support of the closure of Balleally dump.[16] Other candidates from inside the constituency included Angela Keaveney from Portmarnock for the Christian Solidarity Party, independent Ciaran Goulding from Lusk, and independent Alan Nagle from Portmarnock.[4][17]

A number of other candidates from outside the constituency's boundaries sought election; Noel O'Neill from Drogheda ran for the Natural Law Party, while independents Benny Cooney from Athlone, Peter Farrelly from Drogheda, independent Unionist John McDonald from Newtownabbey[18] and perennial candidate Jim Tallon from Arklow also ran.[17]

Campaign

Early reports suggested that Fianna Fáil anticipated a difficult election campaign, with Taoiseach Bertie Ahern admitting the party faced an "uphill battle" to keep the Dublin North seat. Combined with the by-election in Limerick East held on the same day, this put the government at risk of a one-seat majority if they lost both, a particular concern given the government relied on three independent TDs supporting them.[19]

During the campaign, Socialist Party candidate Clare Daly applied for an injunction withdrawing the Fingal Independent newspaper from sale, alleging that the paper had published claims to damage her chances of being elected. The paper had published a claim that Daly called for her transfers to be given to Seán Ryan, a statement Daly denied making.[20]

A major issue that impacted the campaign was the dump at Balleally, due to be closed the previous November until the local council vowed instead to expand it.[16] In November 1997, 400 people had marched through Dublin city calling for the dump in Ballealy to be closed, and threatened to run their own independent candidate in the election,[21] later opting to run Rena Condrot Ruigrok as this candidate.[16] Other campaign issues included traffic issues around Swords and Dublin Airport, a trade dispute involving Ryanair employees, school funding in the constituency, and a threatened abolition of duty-free sales at Dublin Airport placing 300 Aer Rianta employees at risk of redundancy.[16]

Predictions and polls

The Labour Party candidate Seán Ryan was initially viewed as the favourite, particularly due to name recognition,[12] with bookmaker Paddy Power giving odds on 2 March of 1/2 for Ryan, and 11/8 for Michael Kennedy of Fianna Fáil.[22] By 9 March, these odds had shifted to 1/5 for Ryan, 11/4 for Kennedy and 40/1 for Jenkinson.[23]

Two days prior to the election, Brian Dowling of the Irish Independent predicted Ryan to win the seat, though for it to go "down to the wire".[12]

Last date

of polling

Polling firm / Commissioner Sample

size

Kennedy (FF) Ryan

(Lab)

Jenkinson (FG) Daly

(SP)

Martin (GP) Donnelly (SF) Goulding (Ind) Shields (Ind) Rooney (Ind) Fallon (PD) O/I
March 1988 Sunday Independent/IMS[24][25] 400 29% 31% 17% 7% 6% 5% 2% 0.75% 0.75% 0.75% 2%[a]
26 February 1988 MRC[22] Unknown 21% 16% 6% 5% 52%[b]
  1. ^ Keaveney and Farrelly with 0.5%, Tallon, Nagle, Cooney and Holohan with 0.25%, Condrot, McDonald and O'Neill with 0%.
  2. ^ 46% "undecided", 6% "others"

Result

Ryan topped the poll on the first count and was elected on the fourteenth count, following the redistribution of Philip Jenkinson's votes, as the Labour Party won both by-elections held on this day.[26]

1998 Dublin North by-election[27]
Party Candidate FPv% Count
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Labour Seán Ryan 33.3 11,012 11,012 11,017 11,029 11,057 11,216 11,397 11,475 11,555 11,717 12,049 12,832 14,320 16,896
Fianna Fáil Michael Kennedy 31.3 10,334 10,335 10,336 10,352 10,365 10,421 10,514 10,744 10,936 11,079 11,236 11,983 12,698 13,633
Fine Gael Philip Jenkinson 9.6 3,185 3,186 3,187 3,190 3,215 3,258 3,296 3,385 3,449 3,557 3,715 3,982 4,395  
Socialist Party Clare Daly 8.2 2,692 2,692 2,694 2,702 2,705 2,746 2,777 2,809 2,848 2,948 3,041 3,553    
Green Paul Martin 3.3 1,092 1,092 1,093 1,103 1,108 1,151 1,185 1,236 1,289 1,414 1,511      
Sinn Féin Paul Donnelly 3.3 1,088 1,088 1,088 1,092 1,093 1,108 1,115 1,119 1,150 1,188 1,209      
Independent Rena Condrot Ruigrok 2.4 780 781 781 786 790 798 809 821 850 929        
Independent Ciaran Goulding 2.1 682 682 683 690 698 714 740 763 817          
Christian Solidarity Angela Keaveney 1.7 565 565 566 573 576 582 598 616            
Progressive Democrats Finian Fallon 1.6 533 533 533 540 550 557 565              
Independent Gertie Shields 1.4 452 458 460 464 467 476                
Democratic Left Joe Holohan 0.7 225 225 225 229 232                  
Independent Elaine Rooney 0.5 176 177 178 179 183                  
Independent John McDonald 0.3 107 107 107 112                    
Independent Alan Nagle 0.1 44 44 45                      
Independent Peter Farrelly 0.1 34 34 34                      
Independent Benny Cooney 0.1 18 18 18                      
Natural Law Noel O'Neill 0.1 15 16                        
Independent Jim Tallon 0.1 12                          
Electorate: 65,891   Valid: 33,046   Quota: 16,524   Turnout: 50.2%  

Reactions

The election was seen as a blow for Fianna Fáil and a disappointing one for Fine Gael, the Green Party and Democratic Left,[28] though a positive election for the Socialist Party[13] and Sinn Féin.[29]

Ryan described the result as "vindication of my work over the years in the constituency". Fianna Fáil's director for the by-election, Dermot Ahern, attributed the party's defeat to several factors including Fianna Fáil's status as a government party and the fragmentation of votes due to the number of candidates, denying that it was a swing away from the party. After a disappointing result, Fine Gael deputy leader Nora Owen commented that the party "were battling against the odds from day one".[28]

Aftermath

Seán Ryan remained a TD until the 2007 general election, when he retired.[30] His brother Brendan attempted to retain his seat for the Labour Party, but was unsuccessful, though he later served as a TD from 2011[31] until 2020.[32]

Michael Kennedy would go on to serve as a TD for the constituency from 2007 to 2011.[33] Clare Daly would go on to serve as a TD for this constituency from 2011 until 2016, then for its successor constituency Dublin Fingal from 2016 until her election as an MEP in 2019. [34] Paul Donnelly was elected as a TD in 2020 in Dublin West, where he is still a TD to this day.[35]

See also

References

  1. ^ "Introduction to second Interim Report" (PDF). Flood Tribunal. 19 April 2002. Archived (PDF) from the original on 24 December 2004. Retrieved 15 December 2004.
  2. ^ Cullen, Kevin (8 October 1997). "In Belfast, talks get under way Irish aide resigns on unrelated issue". Boston Globe. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  3. ^ "Notice of Dáil Election Constituency of Dublin North". Irish Independent. 20 February 1998. p. 26. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  4. ^ a b c d e f O'Regan, Michael (23 February 1998). "Voters are apathetic in fiefdom that burke long held for FF as the campaign intensifies, candidates in the Dublin North by-election are finding it difficult to interest voters, writes Michael O'Regan". Irish Times. Retrieved 7 July 2025.
  5. ^ a b "No thanks". Sunday Independent (Dublin ed.). 26 October 1997. p. 3. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  6. ^ Moran, John (13 December 1997). "O'Leary joins Carr as Dublin selector". The Irish Times. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  7. ^ "Inside Track". Sunday Independent (Dublin ed.). 16 November 1997. p. 17. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  8. ^ "Fingal councillor to stand for FF in poll". The Irish Times. 15 December 1997. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  9. ^ O'Connor, Kevin (16 November 1997). "Candidate selection". Sunday Independent (Dublin ed.). p. 3. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  10. ^ a b McKenna, Gene (10 December 1997). "Blow to FF by-election chances as ex-Dubs star rules out running". Irish Independent. p. 8. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  11. ^ "FG selects by-election candidate". The Irish Times. 12 December 1997. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  12. ^ a b c Dowling, Brian (9 March 1998). "Party leaders staking all on two-horse race". Irish Independent. p. 5. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  13. ^ a b O'Regan, Michael (13 March 1998). "Ryan win puts the smile back on Quinn's face as FF sweats out the count". The Irish Times. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  14. ^ "Socialist Party selects candidate". The Irish Times. 30 October 1997. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  15. ^ "MADD founder may seek election". Irish Independent. 6 December 1997. p. 6. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  16. ^ a b c d Dillon, Willie (4 March 1998). "Voters raging on the roads or down in the dumps". Irish Independent. p. 6. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  17. ^ a b "19 by-election runners for the one precious seat". Irish Independent. 3 March 1998. p. 31. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  18. ^ McManus, John (8 March 1998). "Unionist stands in Dublin poll". Sunday Times. p. 5. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  19. ^ Brennock, Mark (17 February 1998). "Date for elections will be set today". The Irish Times. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  20. ^ Maddock, John (7 March 1998). "Candidate takes battle for by-election to court". Irish Independent. p. 8. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  21. ^ McDonald, Frank (20 November 1997). "Protest at plans to extend dump". The Irish Times. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  22. ^ a b "Ahern targets transfers in 'battle of undecideds'". Irish Independent. 2 March 1998. p. 3. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  23. ^ Dowling, Brian (9 March 1998). "Labour poll surge puts FF majority in the balance". Irish Independent. p. 1. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  24. ^ "Only Labour Nua can smile". Sunday Independent (Dublin ed.). 8 March 1998. p. 4. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  25. ^ "Double debacle looms for Government". Sunday Independent (Dublin ed.). 8 March 1998. p. 5. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  26. ^ Arnold, Bruce (13 March 1998). "Quinn gets to relish his 'payback' time". Irish Independent. p. 14. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  27. ^ Government of Ireland, https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/electoralProcess/electionResults/dail/2002/2002-07-21_dail-general-election-may-2002-results-and-transfer-of-votes_en.pdf
  28. ^ a b O'Regan, Michael (13 March 1998). "Defeat not due to swing away from party, says FF director of elections". Irish Times. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  29. ^ Coghlan, Denis (13 March 1998). "Ahern comes home to face the music". Irish Times. Retrieved 9 July 2025.
  30. ^ Murphy, Hubert (9 June 2005). "Sean Ryan set to step down at next election". Irish Independent. Retrieved 10 July 2025.
  31. ^ O'Halloran, Marie (29 February 2016). "Profile: Brendan Ryan (Lab)". The Irish Times. Retrieved 10 July 2025.
  32. ^ McConnell, Daniel (8 January 2020). "Veteran TD Brendan Ryan to stand down from Labour ticket". Irish Examiner. Retrieved 10 July 2025.
  33. ^ "Kennedy bares brunt of anger". Irish Independent. 2 March 2011. Retrieved 10 July 2025.
  34. ^ Bolton, Michael (24 October 2024). "Clare Daly to run in general election in Dublin Central". BreakingNews.ie. Retrieved 10 July 2025.
  35. ^ Pollak, Sorcha (30 November 2024). "Dublin West: Paul Donnelly (SF)". The Irish Times. Retrieved 10 July 2025.
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